Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.242571 2.378905 2.522969 2.687184 2.869984 3.068155 3.300511
2025-06-08 2.043770 2.230916 2.438591 2.688408 2.983897 3.326387 3.759676
2025-06-15 1.931463 2.150243 2.401487 2.715762 3.104940 3.580502 4.221511
2025-06-22 1.812623 2.046002 2.320612 2.674042 3.127042 3.703807 4.522274
2025-06-29 1.713534 1.955446 2.245696 2.628044 3.132408 3.797641 4.785921
2025-07-06 1.623131 1.868449 2.167410 2.568747 3.110931 3.847784 4.987302
2025-07-13 1.585187 1.843123 2.163192 2.602541 3.213303 4.074499 5.476051
2025-07-20 1.555967 1.826221 2.167358 2.645757 3.329740 4.330652 6.048994
2025-07-27 1.530350 1.811880 2.172976 2.689764 3.449002 4.601823 6.693447
2025-08-03 1.484531 1.768658 2.137313 2.672822 3.475640 4.729381 7.105505
2025-08-10 1.441908 1.727575 2.102116 2.653620 3.496066 4.847108 7.518840
2025-08-17 1.399885 1.685450 2.063283 2.626335 3.500932 4.937793 7.894516
2025-08-24 1.360214 1.645628 2.026693 2.601415 3.509412 5.038748 8.321575
2025-08-31 1.331866 1.620064 2.008771 2.603039 3.560372 5.220442 8.970643
2025-09-07 1.313203 1.606846 2.007346 2.628970 3.652616 5.488322 9.897642
2025-09-14 1.275754 1.566283 1.965067 2.589434 3.630842 5.536016 10.288085
2025-09-21 1.239294 1.525957 1.921618 2.545818 3.598752 5.559608 10.622446
2025-09-28 1.201089 1.482116 1.871599 2.489555 3.540843 5.525353 10.788871
2025-10-05 1.190419 1.476608 1.877204 2.521626 3.641028 5.826816 12.040831
2025-10-12 1.182760 1.474970 1.888211 2.562618 3.760255 6.186285 13.653436
2025-10-19 1.175569 1.473655 1.899459 2.604336 3.884150 6.576673 15.616019
2025-10-26 1.153661 1.450434 1.876772 2.588278 3.896744 6.711567 16.683135
2025-11-02 1.132230 1.427332 1.853493 2.570073 3.903726 6.834116 17.780398